Elon Musk, the tech mogul known for his ambitious projects, has made a bold prediction about the advent of superhuman artificial intelligence (AI), estimating its arrival by the end of next year. This forecast represents a significant acceleration from his previous estimate of achieving superintelligent AI by 2029. Superhuman AI is defined as intelligence surpassing any individual human's capabilities in specific tasks, while superintelligent AI would eclipse the collective abilities of humanity across all tasks.
During a livestreamed interview on X, Musk's social network, he shared his thoughts on the rapid advancement of AI technology. However, he cautioned that the growing demand for power and potential shortages of advanced AI training chips could temporarily hinder progress. Musk, who has previously expressed concerns about the risks associated with highly advanced AI, including scenarios reminiscent of the "Terminator" series, emphasized the importance of proceeding with caution to avoid dystopian outcomes.
Musk's venture into AI development is exemplified by xAI, his AI startup, which aims to develop benevolent AI systems. He recently compared xAI's Grok AI chatbot to OpenAI's GPT-4, suggesting that it competes with the leading models in the field, despite GPT-4's technology being over a year old.
It's worth noting that Musk's predictions have a history of being optimistic, as seen in his forecasts about autonomous Tesla drives, SpaceX Mars missions, and Neuralink's brain chip technology, which have not materialized within his original timelines. Nevertheless, his latest prediction on superhuman AI adds to the ongoing debate about the future of AI and its implications for society.