A New York Times/Siena College poll reveals President Biden trailing behind Donald Trump in five key battleground states a year before the 2024 election. Biden is behind in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, leading only in Wisconsin. This indicates a shift in voter trust towards Trump, especially on the economy, foreign policy, and immigration, while Biden's multiracial coalition shows signs of fraying.
The poll highlights Biden’s vulnerabilities, including concerns about his age and dissatisfaction with his handling of various issues. Voters under 30, Hispanic voters, and urban voters have diminished support for Biden, while Black voter support for Trump has reached unprecedented levels. Biden faces significant challenges across a broad spectrum of issues, including immigration, national security, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, with a preference for Trump’s policies.
Despite Biden's campaign efforts and economic indicators, voter dissatisfaction is apparent, with many expressing doubt about his effectiveness due to his age. Trump’s polarizing nature remains a factor, but his support remains strong. The poll results, if mirrored in the actual election, suggest a potential win for Trump in the Electoral College.
This survey, conducted from October 22 to November 3, 2023, involved 3,662 registered voters across six states. The results reflect a complex political landscape, with Biden’s administration facing challenges in rallying its base and addressing broad concerns ahead of the 2024 election.